21-25, index 24.3 BRACING: the low point of the season, and it isn't much of one. No crash, no DOOMED reading all year; just a team scraping along under .500 that the model never panicked about.
2
07/30 · INDEX 48 · WATCHFUL
Trade deadline
56-48, index 47.6 WATCHFUL: a playoff contender by any plain reading, yet the front office sold before the deadline anyway. The record never matched the runs underneath it: a .538 actual winning percentage against a .447 Pythagorean expectation on this date. Regression Watch, the index's contrarian component, averaged a score of 1.2 out of 100 across the season. The dial that measures overperformance spent the whole year pinned at maximum alarm.
3
09/29 · INDEX 79 · BELIEVING
The peak
89-70, index 79.3: the highest reading the model would ever give this team, one point short of REFUSE TO LOSE. Across the whole season the ceiling never cracked 80; this is as good as belief got.
4
10/03 · INDEX 52 · WATCHFUL
Game 162
90 wins, two games short of the wild-card pair, and the index settles at 51.8 WATCHFUL: not a crash, just a season ending on the wrong side of the math.
90-72 · finished at 52 WATCHFUL · This is the origin story of the whole project: a team that outran its own underlying numbers for six months, that sold at the deadline while still alive, that never once cracked REFUSE TO LOSE despite 90 wins, and went home two games short anyway. A plain won-loss record can't tell you any of that. The index exists because someone wanted a number that could.
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Team names used descriptively. Data: MLB Stats API, FanGraphs, Polymarket. Anonymous usage analytics.