From REFUSE TO LOSE to DOOMED, and back, and back again.
1
05/21 · INDEX 91 · REFUSE TO LOSE
The peak
28-17, index 90.9 REFUSE TO LOSE: the high point of the season and the best the model would ever say about this team. Fernando Tatis Jr. was in the middle of an MVP-caliber year and the Padres looked like the best team in the division.
2
08/26 · INDEX 11 · DOOMED
The floor
69-61, index 11.3: the lowest reading in any season this site has charted, in the middle of a DOOMED run that stretched from Aug. 18 to Aug. 28. The record is still a winning one; the collapse lives entirely in the trajectory.
3
09/13 · INDEX 19 · DOOMED
The gut-punch
75-69, and the index falls 19.2 points in a day, landing, neatly, at 19.2 DOOMED: the steepest one-day fall of the season. A brief run back to BELIEVING five days earlier (67.1 on Sept. 8) had looked like a reprieve; this is where it ends.
4
10/03 · INDEX 31 · BRACING
Game 162
79-83, index 30.6 BRACING. A team that sat 11 games over .500 in May finishes four games under: the deviation model's whole thesis in one line.
79-83 · finished at 31 BRACING · Twenty-five days took the index from its May peak to its first DOOMED reading in mid-June. That crack healed within two weeks. The Padres were back in BELIEVING by June 25, but two more DOOMED stretches followed: August found the season's true bottom at 11.3, and September's return to the zone confirmed the verdict rather than deepened it. The 79-83 finish undersells how many times this season died and came back before it actually ended.
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Team names used descriptively. Data: MLB Stats API, FanGraphs, Polymarket. Anonymous usage analytics.